The Days Will Get Longer Again


It's a hurried time of year with the holiday either under way or looming and calendars filling up with obligations to tie up loose ends both personally and professionaly for many people.

One also may feel more forecefully cold winter winds amidst the the shortening daylight hours. Alas, while we are tilted away from the sun in our hemisphere during this phase in our orbit the WInter Solstice means daylight will begin to lengthen once again. This year, our solstice on the 21st will coincide with a full moon, aka the "Cold Moon" or the "Long Night Moon" to signify the longest night of the year.

Changes in orbit is a good theme as well for today's anxiously (nervously?) awaited FOMC meeting and policy announcement and press conference. A "dovish hike" is the consensus and what I would bet is in the cards.

iPhones aren't the only things on sale. Many equity darlings that have powered this aging bull market are between 20%-40% off of their fairly recent all-time highs.

I can't help but feel this December is a real "kitchen-sink" end of year event. With individuals punting both equity and bond funds, anecdotal tales of grind to downright horrendus year for some HFs, and even co's downplaying guidance for H12019. We are going to finish the year in the red on most indicies, lower than where we began or close to Feb-lows based on what you watch. Less than 90 days ago market watcher where wondering when the 10yr Treasury might hit 4%. Now at 2.82% bonds simply look too expensive to me.

I would rather allocate more to 3% 2yr bank CDs and step-up notes for a healthy percentage of my portfolio. I like locking in some of these short rates with specific issues held to maturity versus an ETF. We recently had a strong reading from ORCL, weaker broad econ datapoints from the cc and guidance for Fedex (CHina and Euro area dropping) and MU revealed slowing datacenter growth (NVDA last Qtr confirmed the cryto phase is the Millenials version of 'GE'). So are self-driving cars and AI the slower-descending crypto? (probably not but these things take time).

I have been underweight stocks but have increased core longs this week in AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX, NVDA, recently added smaller in AAPL, SQ, XLK (more MSFT, withouth FB!), Softbank, Neslte and BABA and added some EEM (gives you some S amsung along with Tencent rather than just domestic China-focused FXI).

Ahead ofthe Fed I am long small Aussie. I think Powell has to soften tone and DOTS will reveal lower flight path. There is too much at stake to not have some smoothing of US-China relations and a lot of negativity is price-in. I will watch for any strength in Canadian Dollars for confirmation of FOMC dovishness. The 'Algo' likes Oil at $45 as well as CVS, CSCO, TGT, UA and the Russell (IWM).

It's time to reflect on the blessings around us. Everything ebbs and flows. Exhale. The days will get longer again.