Italian Opera


It is hard not to suffer from recency bias. Any look at prices the past several mornings would make me believe the Euro, AUD and NZD are oversold and due for a bounce versus the dollar.

As a trader I have learned you don't trade "yesterday's prices" and one should avoid terms like "oversold", etc.

Indeed Italy is still in the fore and the ensuing implications of their high debt to GDP budget and its reverberations for the Eurozone and EU budget guidelines.

I am staying a bit ot he side of the direct EURUSD cross for now and instead looking to play other crosses based on what the rest of the risk matrix looks like. US stocks seem to have stalled with concerns on what the tech sector will do the the overall indicies (AMZN lower by $100 or so from recent highs).

USDCAD was a great buying opportunity after the "new-NAFTA" levels saw it with a $1.28 handle for several sessions, it has now reclaimed $1.2950 and I think it can still go higher.

USDCHF has several old tops near CHF 0.9950 and I had a successful short there yesterday from 0.9942 with ensuing cover at 0.9928. I think still safe to sell the dollar on rallies there.

The "MoNo" (momentum Sell algo) says to short AUD and NZD still and EUR while not a full sell is still due to languish near recent lows.

That's all for now. I have to remeber I have the scars longer term to show that trying to find reversals and play counter trend usually ends badly for me so I will look for small pips "with the wind" and let the big moves reveal themselves once current storm clouds clear.