Thanksgiving Reset


Thanksgiving is always a good time for a pause to take "stock" or an inventory if you will - counting one's blessings and perhaps reflecting quietly of things that have worked or not worked.

These past few weeks have witnessed a real drubbing of high-beta tech names (and actually ALL beta for that matter!). I have said for awhile that I do not like many broad funds nor ETFs because of their over-reliance on AAPL, FB and JPM. That said I would rather own DIA over SPY and XLK over QQQ. I would also rather own a sector ETF over anything by Vanguard as the intraday moves are excessive and selective buying of things when down intraday or on the close has presented some good opportunities. (I have no affiliation with any of the afforementioned fund or ETF companies).

Elsewhere I have been allocating a higher percentage to short-term CDs and Notes with yields between 3%-4%. Additionally I have kept a higher-than-normal cash position to deploy for some medium-term equity allocations. Letting some things go when up and adding when down.

Admittedly, I have a rather lousy track record as a day trader but with comfortable position sizing (read "smaller") I have had better luck tactically looking for longs amid oversold or washed-out conditions of seller fatigue.

I do believe the market will languish for sometime now in a lower trading range. I believe the forward P/E on the SPX has rightfully drifted back down to the high teens and could see 15-16x forward eps.

I am a long term believer and have been trading around / adding on wekaness to names AMZN, NFLX NVDA, SQ (which has taken a larger hit due to crypto-related sell-off). At $175 or below I will buy AAPL (and I am no "fan-boy" by any stretch). I have zero exposure to gamers like EA, ATVI, etc but I am trying to figure out what is going on there - my gut would be to play a name like TCEHY from the long side first (China fears putting extra pressure on that sector). More work to be done.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving everyone and happy bargain hunting in the markets as we hope for a truly financial "Black-Friday-and-Cyber-Monday" !!