It's The Most Wonderful Time of the Year


The NFP number missed by a lot this am, 155k jobs vs estimates of 200k along with flatness in wages. I don't think this should come as a surprise given recent softness seen in recent ISMs and PMI reports. Housing and construction have rolled over in the past several months and with trade concerns swinging around wildly by the Tweet it's not a stretch to see why companies stall on hiring.

It has also become commonplace for a major index like the Dow Industrials to swing 3% in either direction in one session without many participants batting an eye.

USD/CAD had a strong recent move from the 1.32 handle to try several to break through $1.3450 several times without being able to sustain. Oil started to base and strengthen from $51.50 or so. At 8:14 am today Trump tweeted 'China talks going well'. General risk-on could be seen and even the Fed ws around early this week re-emphasizig "data dependent".

All that led me to put on a USD/CAD short pre-data at 8:20 at $1.3393. After the weaker US data and stronger CAD employment the dollar sold off broadly. I closed the short albeit too early at 1.3338 - was just happy to put a 'P' on the page.

Elsewhere yesterday, I added new names on the long side: CVS, BAC, DIA (Dow etf), GE, ORCL, ROKU, INTC, TGT; PYPL & SQ I also like adding on weakness.

Elsewhere in FX, my mechanical algo system is suggesting a long in Aussie (AUD/USD at $0.7225). I will restate that the overall increase in volatility in the US equity market should re-weight downaward all holdings and I view this both a as a market-structural development AND an economic strucrual development. I believe the scales have tipped towards persistently low wage growth, public and private excessively high debt-levels and synchronized slowing global growth.

With that take a moment in the crisp cold air outside the remember, 'It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year !'